Quants, Assumptions and Unexamined Actions

If you combine these articles with my previous post about the article from Scientific American don’t you have to wonder about every analysis concerning finance and credit?

Steve Lohr in the New York Times

Lee Gomes in Forbes

Citigroup Saw No Red Flags Even as It Made Bolder Bet

Aren’t these largely the same processes that credit bureaus use in determining how to create “credit scores” for the rest of us? Don’t you wonder about their ability to figure out a darn thing? Don’t you think that just maybe they ignore the human factor entirely in their analyses of people’s ability and willingness to pay back their debt? Should people be cut some slack in times like these as the companies that extend them credit prove that they in fact don’t have a clue when it comes to risk analysis? Questions, questions.

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